Predictions

Hennessy's Index is a monthly listing of numbers, written by the CCPA's Trish Hennessy, about Canada and its place in the world. Scroll down for a PDF version.  For other months, visit: http://policyalternatives.ca/index

• Gloom and Doom

  Many international bodies, including the IMF and the OECD, grimly warn 2012 may usher in more global economic turmoil. (Source)

• Derailed Recovery

  The IMF warns Europe’s fiscal troubles, combined with high Canadian household debt and overvalued housing could derail Canada’s economic recovery. (Source)

• Recession or Slow Growth?

  The OECD predicts Canada’s economy will do better than the G7 nations, but it’s not alone in predicting 2012 will be a year of slow growth. It warns global policy makers to prepare for the worst. (Source 1, 2, 3, 4)

• Decoupling

  BMO Deputy Chief Economist Doug Porter predicts the North American economies will follow their own path, decoupling from the turmoil of the European economy. (Source)

• Housing Market Correction

  Low interest rates may still be attracting buyers, but many experts predict Canada’s overheated housing market is headed for a correction in 2012. (Source 1, 2, 3)

• Household Debt Problems

  Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney calls Canadians’ record-high household debt levels the biggest threat to Canada’s economy, which could spell trouble in 2012. (Source)

• Banks at Risk

  Moody’s warns Canada’s banks could be exposed to risk in 2012 due to high levels of unsecured consumer debt in the form of credit cards and lines of credit. (Source)

• More Unemployment

  Economists predict ‘soft job creation’, saying Canada’s 7.4 per cent unemployment rate could worsen in 2012. (Source 1, 2, 3)

• Labour Unrest

  The Conference Board of Canada predicts more work stoppages in Canada’s public sector in 2012, as governments tighten the screws on workers in the name of austerity. (Source)

• Eroding Consumer Confidence

  Observers predict Canada’s consumer confidence, which is at its lowest point since the 2008-09 recession, will slow to a “shallow growth” in 2012. (Source 1, 2, 3)

• Inflation

  The Bank of Canada expects overall inflation in Canada to decline by one per cent by mid-2012 as gasoline prices continue to drop. (Source)

• New Leaders

  Psychic Blair Robertson, who allegedly predicted March’s Japan earthquake and Tsunami, predicts Thomas Mulcair will secure the NDP’s leadership race and Bob Rae will change his mind to secure the Liberal leadership. He also predicts Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird will adopt a cat with a “loud meow”. (Source)