The following is a re-print of the July 2025 edition of Shift Storm, the CCPA’s monthly newsletter which focuses on the intersection of work and climate change. Click here to subscribe to Shift Storm and get the latest updates straight to your inbox as soon as they come out.
The International Court of Justice, which is the preeminent source of international law, issued a groundbreaking advisory opinion on climate change this month.
The opinion concludes that states failing to take action against the production and consumption of fossil fuels, such as by issuing new exploration permits or by continuing to provide subsidies to the fossil fuel sector, are committing “internationally wrongful acts.” The consequences for rich, fossil-fuel producing countries, such as Canada, include an obligation to compensate poorer countries facing the brunt of climate impacts.
While the ICJ’s opinion is not, in itself, legally binding, the landmark opinion will empower the hundreds of legal challenges being brought against governments and corporations around the world for failing to address the climate crisis. More than 200 such cases were filed last year, and the ICJ opinion will provide the legal basis for many more.
As the Grantham Research Institute’s latest climate change litigation snapshot makes clear, these cases are not political theatre. Climate litigation succeeds more often than not, and it is having a very real impact on policy making and corporate decision making around the world. As the right to a safe climate is increasingly entrenched in law, it becomes harder and harder for governments and corporations to wilfully ignore climate science.
Canadian courts have been more reluctant than others to rule on such cases. One of the most clear-cut climate litigation cases to date (Mathur v Ontario, in which seven youths challenged the province’s cancellation of climate policies) has been ongoing since 2019. But the legal system has played a historically important role in resisting or upending government policies in support of fossil fuels, especially where policies have been challenged for violating the rights of Indigenous peoples. The recent Indigenous-led legal challenges to Ontario’s Bill 5 and the federal Bill C-5 are but one example.
The growing prominence and effectiveness of climate litigation is bittersweet. It is a good thing that legal systems increasingly recognize the “urgent and existential threat posed by climate change,” as the ICJ put it, and that governments and corporations are being held accountable for their inaction.
What’s disappointing is that it is even necessary. In democratic societies, there should be no need to fall back on the legal system to protect the planet. Fighting climate change is not merely the right thing to do—it is eminently rational in a context where the alternative is long-term social and economic collapse. Yet, as readers of this newsletter are no doubt well aware, our politics are a long way from taking the issue seriously.
As we press on with the fight over climate policy, I want to shout out Ecojustice, West Coast Environmental Law, the Canadian Environmental Law Association and other groups that are helping to hold the line on climate law at a moment when our politics are moving in the wrong direction.
Now let’s get to the research. Far from a summer lull, there are a ton of new developments to get into this month.
Storm surge: this month’s key reads
New oil and gas investments won’t achieve commercial returns as global economy decarbonizes
An important and timely new study by Greg Muttitt for the International Institute for Sustainable Development and Environmental Defence, Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition, finds that 66 per cent of new investments in oil and gas infrastructure will never pay for themselves if global demand for Canadian fossil fuels collapses in the coming decades.
In some respects, it is an unexceptional finding. The risk of stranded assets in the fossil fuel industry has been well-known for a long time in spite of industry and government enthusiasm for new investment. Yet the report offers a clear and troubling picture of just how much money is at stake. Even if no new climate policies were introduced globally, the Canadian oil and gas industry is on track to lose around US$100 billion in value in the coming years. On the other hand, if the world does achieve net-zero emissions, it will wipe out half a trillion US dollars in Canadian assets, making the value of the domestic fossil fuel sector net negative by mid-century.
One of the key and counterintuitive conclusions from the report is that restricting investment in new oil and gas infrastructure—essential from a climate perspective—actually increases the value of existing assets. In other words, the fossil fuel industry (and associated government revenues) are better off in a scenario where existing projects do not face new competition.
That’s a vital lesson for the federal government to internalize as it considers which new infrastructure projects are in the “national interest.” A helpful report in the National Observer, “Meet the megaprojects,” highlights just how many new fossil fuel projects are on the table right now. Throwing new money into that pit would be a shockingly bad decision, especially when better, cleaner options are on the table.
Research radar: the latest developments in work and climate
Unions can advance the principles of a just transition through bargaining. A new working paper from the International Labour Organization, The role of collective bargaining in promoting just transitions, analyzes hundreds of collective agreements to offer best practices for advancing a just transition in the workplace. While most existing examples are merely statements of principle, CAs could be better leveraged to create new social dialogue mechanisms, to facilitate retraining and to shift workplaces toward more environmentally sustainable practices.
Countries paying lip service to just transition are avoiding the hard questions. The UNFCCC has released a new study, Just transitions in national climate frameworks and climate policies, that examines the extent to which countries have integrated transition planning into their climate commitments. It’s a mixed bag, with some principles, such as economic diversification, receiving much more attention than others, such as social dialogue. However, even where terms such as “just transition” appear, few countries have tangible transition plans in place. Where they do, the report notes, they tend to focus on coal while ignoring oil and gas. Most countries, including Canada, have yet to seriously contend with a post-fossil economy.
Achieving a just transition requires empowering marginalized communities. The Women’s Earth and Climate Action Network released How Local Community Power is Central to a Just Renewable Energy Transition, which breaks down the barriers to achieving a truly just transition at the community level. A central theme is the power of the fossil fuel industry relative to communities—and the marginalized folks within those communities in particular. A key takeaway is that tackling inequality first can facilitate more effective transitions, rather than equity being a mere byproduct of transition.
Global fossil fuel advertising should be banned on human rights grounds. A special report published by the UN Human Rights Council, The imperative of defossilizing our economies, concludes in no uncertain terms that states have a human rights obligation to phase out fossil fuels. The report makes dozens of recommendations toward that end, including a total ban on “fossil fuel advertisements, promotion and sponsorship” as well as lobbying by the fossil fuel industry. It’s one of the boldest statements on the energy transition I’ve yet seen from a UN body.
Fossil fuel companies in BC should pay for climate damages. Consistent with the recent ICJ opinion, a new report from Greenpeace, How to Make Polluters Pay, argues that BC should pass a Climate Cost Recovery Act that puts the onus for climate damages on major emitters. Several U.S. states have similar legislation in place already, and a precedent in BC could encourage other provinces to follow suit.
Major Canadian pension funds in conflicts of interest over fossil fuels. In a new report, Entrenched Interests, the NGO Shift documents how five of Canada’s largest pension funds have board members who also sit on the boards of fossil fuel companies. It’s a problematic conflict of interest that may explain, in part, the CPP Investment Board’s recent walk-back on its net zero commitments.
Public companies are key to clean power transitions. In State of Transition, the International Institute for Sustainable Development argues that state-owned utilities are uniquely positioned to facilitate the transition to clean power because they can pursue mandates that go beyond short-term profitability. To do so, public companies need clearer direction and support from their governments as well as increased access to capital.
Coal-to-solar conversions offer a win-win opportunity for industrial diversification. In Bright side of the mine, the U.S.-based Global Energy Monitor documents the growing trend of taking shuttered coal mines and repurposing the land for solar installations. China has 90 such conversions already underway and other countries are starting to take note. Former open-pit coal mines have the advantage of being large areas of exposed land that are often in close proximity to existing power grids, making them excellent candidates for industrial solar.
Abuses in the clean energy transition triggering new litigation wave. The Business and Human Rights Resource Centre’s 2025 update to its transition litigation project, Justice in the transition, identifies 95 new lawsuits brought against governments related to their energy transition efforts in the last year, most of which are linked to the mining of critical minerals. The report is an important corollary to the climate litigation discussed above, because in this case the law is being used to fight back against human rights and environmental abuses in the development of clean energy. The lesson is that governments and corporations need to be held to higher standards and to more proactively engage with and protect workers and communities in transition.
Global currents: international case studies
Unions a site of contestation in South Africa’s coal transition. South Africa has been a recurring case study in this newsletter due its politically complex transition away from coal. A new report published by the Hans Böckler Foundation, Trade Union Engagement for a Just Transition in South Africa, examines the country’s union dynamics in particular, revealing a labour movement increasingly divided over the coal transition. The key takeaway is that most union skepticism of a just transition is due to its imposition from above by governments and international financiers. A truly just transition must come from below, with considerable agency for the workers and communities most affected.
India at the just transition inflection point. A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Just Transition financing ecosystem, assesses the state of play for India’s energy transition with a focus on mapping out key stakeholders. India is ramping up its coal transition ambitions and thus has a significant opportunity to integrate just transition principles from the outset rather than tacking them on after the fact, as is so often the case elsewhere.
Morocco continues ambitious push to displace coal and oil with renewables. The Moroccan Institute for Policy Analysis released Energy policy and transition in Morocco, which documents the country’s efforts to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels by investing in renewable energy. Morocco is a prime site for both wind and solar power, which the government hopes can underpin a productive green hydrogen export economy. The report is perhaps too uncritical of the government’s approach, which also includes a large role for methane (natural) gas, but overall it’s a useful summary of the state of play in Morocco.
Caribbean region needs a coordinated green industrial policy. The U.S.-based Rocky Mountain Institute published A Caribbean Regional Transition Scenario that explores the challenges and opportunities facing the region. One of the big takeaways is that many Caribbean countries lack the skilled workforce to build out clean infrastructure, but until that infrastructure is built there are few opportunities to train new workers. There is a clear need for industrial policies—coordinated between countries—that align workforce development efforts with infrastructure goals as the region tries to move away from its dependence on imported diesel and other fossil fuels.
Clean energy presents an economic boom opportunity for Jamaica. A new report from the UN Development Programme, A green economic growth model for Jamaica, reaches a similar conclusion for that country in particular. Replacing fossil fuels, which are 100 per cent imported, with local renewables can provide a significant boost to the Jamaican economy while reducing emissions.
Germany guilty of double standards in critical mineral supply chains. The Rosa Luxemburg Foundation released a new report, Green at Home, Harm Abroad, that exposes Germany’s role in human rights and environmental abuses in six international case studies. Despite being a climate leader domestically, Germany has “prioritized economic interests over ethical considerations, neglecting accountability for human rights and environmental standards in foreign resource extraction.”
France and Spain move to tax first class flyers and private jets. Some European countries plan to introduce new taxes on “premium” flyers, as Reuters reports, to push down emissions and to raise new revenues for climate action. Aviation accounts for more than two per cent of global emissions, and those emissions are highly skewed toward the richest passengers. It’s a sensible idea that will only become more effective as other countries follow suit.
New Zealand shedding the mantle of climate leadership. I generally try to focus on positive case studies, but it’s worth noting the unfortunate political turn in New Zealand, which has until recently been a key player in global efforts to move beyond fossil fuels. As Drilled reports, the country’s right-wing government pulled New Zealand out of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance and now intends to restart offshore oil drilling in the country.
Dark clouds: artificial intelligence on the horizon
AI adoption is no panacea for weak productivity growth. Improving productivity is the white whale of Canadian economics, and AI is being touted as the solution. But as a new article in the International Productivity Monitor finds, widespread AI adoption may contribute merely half a percentage point to annual productivity growth in the medium term—not nothing, but also hardly transformative. Those modest benefits also ignore any potential costs, such as “uses of AI that prioritizes automation over quality or welfare.”Industrial policy likely to determine AI winners and losers. Whether or not AI adoption ultimately improves welfare may come down to countries’ specific industrial policies. A new article from the U.S.-based think tank RAND, “China’s Evolving Industrial Policy for AI,” explores how that country is aggressively supporting domestic AI development for domestic application. In contrast, Canada’s approach has been to defer to big tech companies, as Paris Marx argues in The Breach. The alternative, as Marx argues in a separate article for the CCPA blog, is control over our own digital infrastructure, which would allow us to put the public good over private profit in digital services.
