This report explores the potential social and economic consequences of a large-scale decline in oil sands production due to collapsing demand for Canadian oil exports. If global commitments to achieve net-zero emissions are realized, there will be significant and wide-ranging consequences for workers, communities and governments in Canada.
The report finds that there is a short runway to prepare for decline before oil sands projects start to shut down in the 2030s. Without proactive transition plans in place, this decline will cost tens of thousands of jobs, tens of billions of dollars in public revenues, and it will leave behind more than $50 billion in unfunded environmental cleanup costs.
This report was published in collaboration with Ecojustice.
About the authors
Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood
Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood (he/him) is a senior researcher and political economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. His work focuses on federal economic, social and environmental policy, especially in the areas of climate change, artificial intelligence and industrial strategy. Hadrian edits the monthly Shift Storm newsletter on climate and labour.
