What’s in the Canada Investment Summit “deal book?”

Prime Minister Carney’s high-profile “Investment Summit” in September focused the global spotlight on Canada—with a stated objective of catalyzing $1 trillion of investment in the next five years, from both domestic and foreign sources. At the summit’s conclusion, the feds released a dubious news release sporting a headline claim that the summit had “unleashed nearly $500 billion of new investment in Canada”—halfway to the $1 trillion target. 

Alas, these are merely verbal commitments from Canada’s banks ($325 billion) as well as pension funds and other institutional investors ($114 billion) to do what they already do, not necessarily new, incremental investments. 

The biggest splash at the investment summit was the controversial plan to privatize the operations of Canada’s four largest airports. While privatizing airports may be attractive for investors like pension funds, this type of investment does not create new infrastructure or capital. It merely delivers public assets into the hands of private rent-seeking monopolies. 

The feds also announced a major permanent change to the tax treatment of capital investment, a measure that favours big long-term investments by Canada’s dirtiest industries. Prior to this, federal investment tax credits and accelerated expensing of capital investment largely supported a federal policy direction towards clean energy (although it included carbon capture and storage). 

In terms of actual projects for investors, the summit offered up a prospectus or “deal book” of 167 projects across the country. Unlike airport privatization—which is not in the deal book—these potential investments would actually create new jobs and economic activity. Let’s take a closer look at a leaked version of the deal book and what it tells us about federal and provincial priorities. 

What’s the deal?

The 167 projects are compiled four to a page and look like the property ownership cards from the game Monopoly. The federal government assembled the content from submissions by the chosen companies/projects, though it’s not clear how they were selected. Some projects are already well known and are fairly advanced, in search of equity or debt financing to reach a final investment decision. Others are blue-sky concepts that are wildly speculative, including some lacking any ballpark number on capital cost.

The projects total between $527 and $553 billion in estimated capital expenditures, although 14 projects do not state an estimate. Tables 1 and 2 show the breakdown of projects across eight sectors (conventional energy, clean energy, minerals and metals, marine and port infrastructure, power and utilities, digital technology, advanced manufacturing, and transportation) and the top 20 investments by total estimated capital cost, respectively. The 10 biggest projects in the deal book comprise a total capital cost of $336 billion, more than 60 per cent of the deal book total, and the top 20 total $443 billion or 80 per cent of the total. 

Projects are spread across provinces and territories, with a tilt towards the west, featuring Alberta and BC as the top destinations (respectively, 26 and 22 of the projects). These include the $35 billion West Coast Oil Pipeline, now called Pacific Link, which the federal government recently declared a Project of National Interest. Private investors have thus far stayed away from the risky project, and the feds have also been courting First Nations along the route to make equity investments. 

The deal book’s largest capital investment is an $80 billion expansion of the Port of Churchill, Manitoba into an all-season trade gateway. This megaproject is still in very early days in terms of assessing long-run viability, and would also require substantial public infrastructure upgrades to port, rail and road infrastructure servicing the upgraded port. 

Also up top are two wind power megaprojects: the $61 billion Wind West, an offshore wind power and transmission proposal from the Nova Scotia government, and the $51 billion Novatron Energy, an offshore/onshore wind plus transmission megaproject off the East Coast.

Industries of the future

From a longer-term economic development and industrial policy perspective, the most interesting projects are those related to clean energy, digital technology and advanced manufacturing. But while these areas ostensibly point to industries of the future, the specific projects in the deal book are, as a group, rather underwhelming in size and scope.

Advanced manufacturing is a grab bag of interesting possibilities, with 19 projects, but comprising only four per cent of the deal book’s capital costs. Five are projects with defence/military applications but others focus on food resilience, advanced materials, semiconductors, and optical and sensor technologies. Some projects are out there—literally—like the Nova Scotia Spaceport commercial launch facility for space missions (colourful local coverage here) and the Telesat low earth orbit (LEO) satellite network. 

Six of the 10 projects under digital technology are proposals for new AI data centres. These have become increasingly controversial over the past couple years due to major challenges to electricity demand and local noise and air pollution. Two other projects are AI-adjacent, and the remaining two are for quantum computing and a Canada-Norway trans-Atlantic fibre optic cable. One of the larger clean energy projects, Genesee (#15 on the top 20 list), is also data centre-adjacent. 

Three of the “clean energy” projects are carbon sequestration, while two others have sequestration as an add-on. On the technology side, new possibilities like direct air capture are intriguing, but there’s no market yet for doing so. This situation is worse due to the federal elimination of consumer carbon pricing and weak industrial carbon pricing. 

Other clean energy projects include more interesting possibilities, such as green hydrogen, other renewable fuels, battery storage and offshore wind power. There’s the prospect of new nuclear power in New Brunswick but that seems very much at a conceptual stage with no estimated cost. The power and utilities sector also includes some nuclear projects, as well as major transmission projects in Labrador and between PEI and New Brunswick.

The overlapping power and utilities, clean energy and digital technology projects all raise concerns about privatization in the electricity sector. While new demand from data centres could be separated from existing public utilities to protect the existing customers from soaring prices, there are likely to be adverse consequences and spillovers from greater private generation, including using fossil fuels to power them. The federal government plans to double Canada’s electricity supply, but the main users appear to be AI data centres, mining and oil and gas extraction.

Fossil fuels

“Conventional energy” comprises 11 projects in the deal book and 25 per cent of total estimated capital costs. These raise red flags associated with carbon emissions, other environmental challenges and Indigenous rights and consent. There are also substantial commercial headwinds facing these projects due to uncertainties about oil and gas markets a decade from now. Decreasing demand in Asia, in light of the Trump-Iran war price shocks, is a significant factor, as Asia has been seen as the prime destination for new oil and gas exports.

In addition to the Pacific Link oil pipeline, the deal book points to an expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, mostly in British Columbia. This includes a doubling of the under-construction Woodfibre LNG in Squamish, B.C. ($13.9 billion), and Ksi Lisims LNG on the North Coast ($39.9 billion), a project that would also require a new gas pipeline through the Rockies.

A couple other LNG projects look even more questionable in terms of economics. Kino Aski LNG in Quebec seems more of a pipe dream at this stage, as the government of Quebec rejected a similar project in 2021 requiring Western Canada gas pipelined across Ontario and Quebec. Project Northern Lights is an LNG project, not for external markets but for markets across Western Canada. This feels like LNG hype because the only reason you go to the bother of making LNG is to load it onto tankers for shipping. Compressed natural gas for commercial and industrial uses would be a more economical alternative for remote areas.

The other projects under conventional energy are smaller scale, including a natural gas processing hub in B.C., hydrogen and methanol processing, and synthetic gasoline production. 

Strangely, one of the projects is the expansion of an oil pipeline connecting Hardisty, Alberta to the U.S. border. This seems oddly juxtaposed with Carney’s language about disconnecting from the U.S. market, although it is consistent with the large reported attendance of U.S. investors at the summit.

Minerals and metals

The largest share of projects in the deal book are mining-related, with 63 out of 167 projects, although they are mostly smaller plays that in total account for only 14 per cent of the capital expenditures in the deal book. The list is hard to evaluate in terms of actual potential, and it has the feel of old-school boosterism for new mines pitched by junior mining companies.

Investments in rare earth minerals like gallium and molybdenum, which have a major role in modern electronics, could have high potential value in light of China’s lock on production. However, these materials are costly and environmentally damaging to process—the real challenge in developing domestic supply chain alternatives to China. 

Given their strategic importance, it’s not obvious that just opening up the sector to foreign investment is a wise move, as it risks losing control over future supplies that will be needed domestically. Uranium also factors in for Saskatchewan, which is contemplating new major investments in nuclear power. New nuclear power plants are not in the deal book and would ostensibly be for baseload supply but the scale implies they would be used for hosting data centers or selling power to the Alberta oil sands.

For all of the talk about rare earths and critical minerals, it is gold that drives Canadian mining and this is reflected in 14 of the 63 projects. Gold is unusual in that it has few practical uses in the economy besides jewelry and some use in computing. Most of the gold extracted from below ground is processed into pure gold to be stored deep in the vaults of central banks. 

Copper is also lumped in with critical minerals, and while it is in high demand as new data centres and computing infrastructure are built out, it is also fairly common and has many suppliers around the world. Investments that add value to copper extracted in Canada and strengthen domestic supply chains would be more of interest than just increasing extraction.

Other infrastructure

Port and marine infrastructure includes public and private investments to expand Canada’s export capacity. The $80 billion Churchill, Manitoba port expansion would position a northern port far from the U.S. and take advantage of reduced sea ice due to climate change. Nova Scotia and New Brunswick also have several port expansion projects on offer.

Unfortunately, the orientation remains aimed at external markets, rather than investments like inland ports and warehousing that would facilitate the movement and efficient sourcing of products within Canada. These distance and transportation costs are much more important than alleged interprovincial trade barriers that are periodically raised by politicians.

Of the six projects in the transportation section, there is a competition between two projects to provide high-speed transportation between Calgary and Edmonton. The first is a proposed $11 billion high-speed rail corridor, called Prairie Link, and the second a more speculative ultra-high-speed “pod” corridor for double the cost (the odor of Elon Musk’s hyperloop is all over this one).

The Nova Scotia government has two transportation projects in the deal book, reflecting a push for public-private partnerships (P3s) for a major bridge upgrade and a highway expansion project. The final two transportation projects involve the regional airport of Thompson, Manitoba looking to build a research and training centre and an air logistics hub. It’s hard to see the business case for either; as described they would be better off seeking government funding rather than private investors.

Conspicuously absent from the deal book is the airport privatization that became a headline of the summit and potential headache for the federal government going forward. Also absent is the Alto high-speed rail network that would run from Toronto to Quebec City, which would genuinely need billions of investment. A recent report from the PBO put the cost at between $75 and $113 billion.

The big picture

All of this solicitation of foreign investment risks undermining Canadian sovereignty. A sprinkling foreign investment on top of a strong industrial policy agenda, aimed at bolstering the Canadian economy is one thing, but the danger is if major foreign investments start to impact our ability to make political decisions. For any short-term gain of investment dollars flowing into Canada, there will also be long-run flows of profits leaving the Canadian economy. 

We know the disproportionate political influence of the oil and gas industry and how the industry effectively stonewalled climate policy through the Trudeau years. Now the slate of climate policies has largely been wiped clean by the Carney government’s desire to be an “energy superpower.” Future action to act on climate change could now conflict with the business plans of major investors, potentially leading to investor-to-state legal challenges in kangaroo courts outside the Canadian legal system.

Governments could also set aside other health and environmental concerns to appease foreign investors—and, at a minimum, would operate under substantial regulatory chill. Canada needs to be able to regulate labour markets and worker health and safety, and in the future may need to act to ensure the domestic supply of resources and/or fair prices for Canadians. Indigenous rights will inevitably be affected given the wide geographical distribution of projects, and recent tendencies towards fast tracking major projects in the “national interest.” 

Ultimately, there’s not much “elbows up” in the investment summit deal book. The appeal to investors is less about diversification of markets and export sectors than about the intensification of resource and raw materials extraction—the emphasis on staples exports that has dominated the Canadian economy since its early days. Alternative approaches aimed at stronger public ownership and bringing Canadian capital back home—Canada is a net asset holder when it comes to investments overseas—would represent more meaningful steps towards “building Canada strong.”

About the author

Marc Lee

Marc Lee is a Senior Economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Marc joined the CCPA’s British Columbia office in 1998, and is one of Canada’s leading progressive commentators on economic and environmental policy issues. From 2009 to 2015, Marc led the CCPA’s Climate Justice Project (CJP), which published a wide range of research on fair and effective approaches to climate action through integrating principles of social justice. Marc continues to write about climate and energy policy, strategies for affordable housing, federal and provincial budgets and macroeconomics. Marc has an MA in Economics from Simon Fraser University and a BA in Economics from the University of Western Ontario. Marc is a past chair of the Progressive Economics Forum, a national network of heterodox economists. He also served as a Visiting Professor at Simon Fraser University’s School of Public Policy in 2024 to 2025.